Abstract: The development and dynamic features of Qiaraigir Ravine, the scale and frequency of outbreak of debris flow, the possibility and scale of barrier dam, and the flood routing of dam failure in Qiaraigir Ravine were analyzed. The results showed that: 1) it was quite possible that a large-scale debris flow would occur in Qiaraigir Ravine, and Kezi River would be blocked; 2) downstream areas would be severely affected if the dam failure happened. Suggestions: for the sake of safety, it is necessary to establish a monitoring net for early warning of disasters and take engineering measures to control Qiaraigir Ravine.

Key words: Qiaraigir Ravine, debris flow, barrier dam, dam failure, impact

摘要： 通过对恰尔阿依格尔沟泥石流发育特征、爆发规模及频率、泥石流堵塞克孜河的可能性、规模及堰塞坝溃决洪水演进进行研究，认为：①该泥石流沟依然具备爆发大规模泥石流并堵塞克孜河河道的可能；②如堰塞坝发生溃决，其将对下游造成较大影响。建议建立水情预报系统，以实现灾害预警，并采取工程措施治理该泥石流沟，以策安全。

关键词: 恰尔阿依格尔沟, 泥石流, 堰塞坝, 溃决, 影响