Abstract: With the effect of water hammer, the fluid-structure interaction in the water delivery system is obvious, and the uncertainty of the coupled water hammer is complex, so it is necessary to analyze the uncertainty. First, deterministic analysis of coupled water hammer using fluid-structure interaction (FSI) 4 equation model as well as the finite volume method (FVM) are used. By comparing the experimental results with the numerical results, the validity of verification model analysis and the applicability of the finite volume method are demonstrated. Combined with the uncertainties of pipeline parameters and fluid parameters, the coupled water hammer uncertainty is studied, and the distribution law of coupled water hammer and a more suitable safety margin are revealed. Second, the risk of water delivery system is simulated by Monte Carlo method, it is clear that coupled water hammer is the main reason for the failure of water delivery system, and it is pointed out that the accuracy of the obtained risk value is closely related to the number of simulations. The analysis results can provide theoretical support for the actual design.

Key words: water hammer, uncertainty, pipe flow, fluid-structure interaction

摘要： 在水锤荷载作用下，输水系统流体-结构相互作用即流固耦合现象明显，考虑流固耦合情况下水锤不确定性情况复杂，有必要分析其不确定性。首先采用四方程模型模拟确定的流固耦合条件，并采用有限体积法求解。通过实验结果与数值结果对比，验证模型分析正确性和有限体积法求解适用性。基于此考虑管道参数和流体参数的不确定性，通过研究，得到考虑流固耦合的水锤分布规律及安全裕度。其次采用蒙特卡洛法模拟了输水系统风险，明确耦合水锤是输水系统失效主要原因，得出风险值精确度与计算次数密切相关。分析成果可为实际设计提供理论支持。

关键词: 水锤, 不确定性, 管道流, 流固耦合