关键词: 堤坝, 溃口参数, 层次聚类方法, 预测公式

Abstract: The prediction of breach parameters is of great significance for downstream rescue and disas_ ter relief. This study mainly focuses on the breach of reservoir dams. Through extensive collection and organization of domestic and foreign dam/embankment failure cases, a dam/embankment failure data_ base has been formed, which includes seven dam breach parameters, namely dam height, height of water above breach bottom, height of breach, reservoir storage, volume of water above breach bottom, peak dis_ charge and final breach average width. The correlation between the parameters is obtained based on the hierarchical clustering method. Moreover, the prediction equations for peak discharge and breach width are established by the correlation. Three typical dam breach cases are selected to verify the new predic_ tion equation, which proves the practicability and rationality of the prediction equation, and it is found that the prediction equation proposed in this paper has better performance than commonly used equa_ tions both domestically and internationally for predicting characteristic parameters of dam breaches. The results can provide theoretical support for emergency decision-making up on reservoir dam failure, and can also provide reference for river embankments.

Key words: dam, breach parameter, hierarchical clustering method, prediction equation