Abstract: The best way to learn lessons from worldwide dam failure cases has revealed investigating and exploring their root causes and vigilantly avoiding duplicating those same mistakes. This approach has driven modern dam safety practitioners to look into the potential failure modes of dams. US federal dam safety programs have employed the potential failure mode analysis (PFMA) methodology, a new effective dam safety performance evaluation/management means, to detect risk factors to prevent the development of dam failure mechanisms. As an exercise in teamwork, the identified and categorized potential failure modes are based on project site investigations, available project information review, individual judgement, qualitative risk evaluation/assessment, and a general consensus by the core team members through brainstorming. As a result, appropriate remedial strategies and/or risk reduction measures are recommended. Generally speaking, the PFMA process itself is not only a technical risk analysis tool in a narrow sense, but also a risk management tool in a broad sense for assuring dam safety. Therefore, without hesitation it is time to take the concrete action of developing and implementing the PFMA process with the prevailing "risk reduction to enhance safety policy"to shape the future of sustainable dam safety assurance.

Key words: root cause of dam failure, teamwork, potential failure mode analysis (PFMA), risk factor, qualitative risk assessment, risk management

摘要： 汲取世界各地过去溃坝教训引以为鉴，采取最佳方法探究溃坝根源，不再重蹈覆辙，这是当今坝安工作者的后发优势。美国联邦水坝安全机构已采用潜在溃坝模式分析（PFMA）方法，作为一种新的有效的水坝安全评估和管理工具，侦查溃坝风险因素，防微杜渐，防患于未然。为识别和分类潜在溃坝模式，需要组织一个核心团队，执行团队工作，包括现场调查、资料审查、个人的判断、定性风险评估和评鉴以及成员通过脑力激荡会议形成普遍共识的基础并提出对策。一般来说，PFMA过程本身从狭义上讲是一种风险技术分析工具，但从广义上讲又是一种风险管理工具。因此，当务之急是采取具体行动，发展应用PFMA，配合目前的“除险加固”坝安政策，以实现塑造未来可持续水坝安全的保证。

关键词: 溃坝根源, 团队工作, 潜在溃坝模式分析, 风险因素, 定性风险评鉴, 风险管理