Abstract: Seismic risk analysis for concrete gravity dams is to discuss the possibility of the dam subjected to a certain level of earthquake in operation period, and the probability of certain earthquake disaster and social consequence during earthquake. The model of seismic risk assessment is founded combined with seismic damage evaluation criteria given by researchers, as well as seismic hazard and seismic fragility analysis. As an engineering application of the method, the risk probabilities of different seismic damage of Jin'anqiao dam are obtained. This research is helpful to optimize seismic design, reinforcement and maintenance measures.

Key words: concrete gravity dam, seismic risk, seismic hazard, seismic fragility

摘要： 混凝土重力坝地震风险分析是对坝址区在运行期内遭受某一概率水平地震作用的可能性及发生某种程度地震灾害和社会后果概率的研究论证。采用已给出的大坝地震破损等级评价标准，通过地震危险性分析和地震易损性分析计算，提出了大坝的地震风险评价模型，并据此给出了金安桥大坝不同震害等级的风险概率。这对于优化大坝的抗震设计及科学合理的维修加固决策具有十分重要的意义。

关键词: 混凝土重力坝, 地震风险, 地震危险性, 地震易损性