Abstract: The water level and temperature observation sequence have trend, this kind of trend will cause trendy deformation of the dam.Based on this, the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD) was used to extract the trend from the water level and temperature process, then the high-frequency was used to forecast the high－frequency of the deformation.On the other hand, the polynomial was employed to fit the low frequency of the deformation from the EMD． Finally, the low frequency and the high-frequency were added together to forecast the horizontal displacement.

摘要： 水位和温度观测值序列中存在趋势性变化，这种趋势性变化也会导致大坝的趋势性变形。基于此，采用经验模态分解方法剔除水位和温度的趋势性变化过程，将剩余的高频部分用于预报变形的高频部分。而对于变形经过经验模态分解后得到的低频部分，采用多项式进行拟合，最终将低频和高频部分综合，实现对水平位移的预测。