Abstract: Starting from the characteristics of emergencies and the requirements for emergency decisionmaking, this study treats dam operation emergencies as a continuous dynamic evolution process, propos⁃ es a scenario quintuple description method for dam operation emergencies, and constructs a Bayesian network model based on the evolution phases of target nodes. This model is applied to scenario develop⁃ ment where flood impacts dam operation safety. The approach reveals the intrinsic patterns and evolu⁃ tionary logic of emergencies, thereby enhancing the scientific rigor and operational feasibility of emer⁃ gency measures.

Key words: dam operation safety, emergency scenario evolution, structured representation, dynamic evolution model

摘要： 从突发事件特点和应急决策需求出发，将大坝运行安全突发事件看成一个连续动态的演化过程，提出大 坝运行安全突发事件情景五元组描述方法，构建基于目标节点演化阶段的贝叶斯网络模型，并将该模型应用到洪 水对大坝运行安全影响事件的情景构建中。本方法揭示了突发事件的内在规律和演化逻辑，使应急措施更具科 学性和可操作性。

关键词: 大坝运行安全, 突发事件情景演化, 结构化描述, 动态演化模型