Abstract: The submerged high toe wall is widely used in high concrete face slab rockfill dams, whose stability is very important. At present, the calculation method of the ratio coefficient of stability resistance of submerged high toe wall is complex, which leads to constraints in engineering design. Therefore, considering the influence of the height, crest width, upstream and downstream slope ratio of high toe wall on the ratio coefficient of stability resistance, and through a large number of finite element calculations, it is obtained that the ratio coefficient of stability resistance of high toe wall has a linear relationship with its crest width, upstream and downstream slope ratio, and a nonlinear relationship with its height. Based on this law, a multivariate nonlinear regression model which can calculate the ratio coefficient of stability resistance of high toe wall during the operation period of concrete face slab rockfill dam is proposed, and it has high calculation accuracy. The model provides a simple algorithm for formulating the design parameters of high toe wall in preliminary design stage and speeds up the design progress.

Key words: submerged high toe wall, prediction of ratio coefficient of stability resistance, multivariate nonlinear regression model

摘要： 潜没式高趾墙广泛应用于高面板堆石坝工程，其稳定性至关重要。目前潜没式高趾墙稳定抗力作用比系数的计算方法较为复杂，在工程设计中存在一定局限性。因此，综合考虑高趾墙高度、顶宽、上游坡比、下游坡比4个因素对高趾墙稳定抗力作用比系数的影响，通过大量的有限元计算，分析得出高趾墙的稳定抗力作用比系数与其顶宽和上、下游坡比呈线性关系，与其高度呈非线性关系。基于此规律提出了面板堆石坝运行期高趾墙稳定抗力作用比系数计算的多元非线性回归模型，可以快速计算运行期高趾墙稳定抗力作用比系数，并且有较高的计算精度，为初设阶段高趾墙设计参数的拟定提供简捷算法，加快设计进度。

关键词: 潜没式高趾墙, 稳定抗力作用比系数预测, 多元非线性回归模型