Abstract: Small and medium-sized water conservancy projects are prone to quality problems or accidents in construction due to short construction period, relatively weak technical strength and other objective factors. Special attention should be paid to the construction quality of arch dams and other hydraulic structures with great impact on public safety and high technical requirements. In this paper, the fault tree method is used to sort out the types of quality accidents of concrete arch dams. By means of literature measurement and expert consultation, the construction risks in various quality accidents of small and medium-sized arch dams are analyzed, and the initial construction quality risk indexes of concrete arch dams are identified. Then the system of quality risk evaluation indexes is studied by expert opinions screening and correlation analysis, and the construction quality risks and evaluation indexes are advanced systematically for small and medium-sized concrete arch dams, which provides basis for supervision of construction quality.

Key words: concrete arch dam, fault tree analysis, discrete coefficient method, correlation analysis, quality risk

摘要： 中小型水利工程因施工工期短、技术力量相对薄弱等客观因素，施工过程中容易出现质量问题或质量事故，公共安全影响大、技术要求高的拱坝等水工建筑物，其施工质量尤应重视。采用故障树的方法梳理了混凝土拱坝的质量事故类型，通过文献计量、专家咨询等方式分析中小型拱坝各类质量事故的施工风险，识别出混凝土拱坝的初始施工质量风险指标，进而采用专家甄别和相关性分析研究质量风险评价指标体系，系统提出了中小型混凝土拱坝施工质量风险及评价指标，为中小型拱坝施工质量监管提供了方向和依据。

关键词: 混凝土拱坝, 故障树法, 离散系数法, 相关性分析, 质量风险