Abstract: Assessment of the dam operation life is helpful to monitor the dam operation status and to provide a reference for decision makers to rationally arrange the work of risk removal and reinforcement. Based on measured data, the evaluation methods of dam operation risk degree and time variant characteristics were discussed. Simplified Markov model and variation criterion which could represent the dam operation risk degree and time variant characteristics were put up, which could provide a certain reference for reinforcement.

Key words: operation risk, Markov chain, dam operation life

摘要： 对大坝运行寿命进行评估有助于监测大坝的运行状态，为决策者合理安排除险加固工作提供参考依据。基于大坝实测资料，探索了大坝运行风险度及时变特性的评估方法，建立了用于表征大坝运行风险度及时变特征的Markov简化模型和转异判据，为合理确定大坝工程除险加固时间提供了一定的支持。

关键词: 运行风险度, 马尔科夫链, 大坝运行寿命