Abstract: Based on the measured daily precipitation data of Jinping hydropower station from 2002 to 2014, the annual precipitation values, trend of monsoon and dry season, periodicity and continuity are analyzed by meteorological tendency rate and R-S theory. The result shows that the monsoon and dry season are distributed distinctly, the annual precipitation and precipitation in monsoon and dry season are stable. As well, the annual precipitation and periodicity obtained by R-S analysis is of good continuity, namely the future trend stays the same with now, which plays an effective role in precipitation forecast.

Key words: climate tendency rate, R-S analytical method, Jinping hydropower station

摘要： 基于锦屏水电站大水沟气象站2002~2014年观测的逐日降水量数据，采用气象倾向率、基于分形理论的R-S分析法初步分析了降水量的年值、雨季、干季的趋势性、周期性和持续性。分析结果表明：降水量年内雨季、干季分布明显；降水量的年值、雨季、干季分别呈现显著比较稳定的趋势；利用R-S分析得出降水量的年值、周期都具有较强的持续性，即未来的趋势和现有的趋势一致，对未来的降水量特性有很好的预测作用。

关键词: 气候倾向率, R-S分析法, 锦屏水电站