Abstract: This paper introduces briefly the principle and the forecasting steps by use of GM model in which the prediction of practical monitoring data based on MATLAB is realized. The prediction results are well consistent with those by filed measurement, and the practical application value of this prediction method is proved. As well, the paper discusses the generating coefficients and some effective conclusions are drawn.

Key words: grey system model, dam deformation, GM model

摘要： 为解决大坝安全监测中变形预测的问题，以某大坝坝顶监测数据为例，介绍了灰色GM模型预测的基本方法，采用MATLAB程序建立了GM（1，1）和GM（2，1）模型，分别对某大坝坝顶视准线部分监测点的变形量进行了预测。将预测值与实测值进行对比分析可知：采用GM（1，1）和GM（2，1）模型得到的预测结果均能很好地拟合实测值，预测精度高，利用该模型在实际工程中加以应用是可行的。

关键词: 灰色系统模型, 大坝变形, GM模型