Abstract: In order to analyze the disciplines of dam’s vertical displacement changes accurately and its influencing factors, basing on analysis of defects of conventional statistic model, add the “new high water level factor” to the statistic model to analyze vertical displacement of Tongjiezi gravity dam. The results showed that the statistical model contained the “new high water level factor” could simulate the influence of sharp increase of water level at the beginning of impoundment on the vertical displacement. As well, the reasonable aging development process could be separated. This new model improved the reliability of dam safety evaluation.

摘要： 为了更准确地分析大坝垂直位移的变化规律，解析其影响因素，在分析了常规统计模型缺陷的基础上，加入“新高水位因子”，用于铜街子重力坝垂直位移的对比分析。结果表明，增加新高水位因子的统计模型能够很好地模拟初蓄期水位急升对垂直位移的影响，并能分解出合理的时效发展过程，采用该模型可提高坝工安全评价结论的可靠性。