Abstract: Based on 100 earthquake damaged reservoirs in Mianyang city during Wenchuan earthquake and SPSS, stepwise linear regression analysis was adopted to define main factors effect on crack, leakage and landslide, and predication models of crack, leakage, landslide and so on were created, worthy reference for reinforcement of earth dams and emergency rescue of seismic damaged reservoir.

摘要： 根据汶川地震中绵阳市100座震损土石坝资料，以统计学软件SPSS为基础，采用逐步线性回归分析方法，确定了影响土石坝裂缝、渗漏、滑坡等常见震害的主要因素，建立了土石坝裂缝、渗漏、滑坡等常见震害的预测模型，为土石坝除险加固设计和震损水库应急抢险提供参考。