Abstract: In this paper, it is analyzed that the stress distribution and change of the spiral case of the No.19 hydraulic turbine set in right powerhouse during the different conditions (the press mantling, the constant temperature and pressure, the press dismantling, the electricity generation), and the change rule of the spiral case is studied in the whole process. The stress change is allowed in the design. To one measuring point as an example, using it＇s monitoring data, regressive model to forecast the stress of the spiral case under the normal water level is set up.

摘要： 通过分析某电站右岸19 号机蜗壳关键断面在加水加压阶段、保温保压阶段、卸压阶段以及充水发电阶段的钢板应力状况，得出在整个过程中蜗壳的应力变化及分布规律，认为蜗壳应力在设计允许的范围内；并以蜗壳某一测点为例，利用其钢板应力的监测数据，建立该测点钢板应力的多元回归模型，预测在正常蓄水位时的蜗壳钢板应力。