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Research progress and prospect in risk assessment of reservoir damin China

WANG Zhi- jun   

  • Online:2008-06-28 Published:2008-06-28

我国水库大坝风险评价研究进展及展望

王志军1,2   

  1. 1.河海大学水利水电工程学院, 江苏南京 210098; 2.水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心, 江苏南京 210098

Abstract: The concept of reservoir dam risk was put forward. The content and procedure of dam risk assessment were analyzed. The frame structure of dam risk assessment was achieved. According to the content of dam risk assessment, current research progress of damrisk in China was summarized from nine aspects, such as evaluation method, flood- control risk, dam- break mode, dam- break flood, dam- break probability, dam- break consequences, risk diversion, risk standard and risk decision- making. In the end, the development direction of damrisk in the future was forecasted.

摘要: 首先给出了水库大坝风险的概念, 分析了大坝风险分析的内容与程序, 得出了大坝风险分析的框架结构。根据大坝风险分析的内容, 从大坝风险分析方法、水库大坝防洪风险、溃坝模式、溃坝洪水、溃坝概率、溃坝后果、风险转移、风险标准、风险决策9 个方面, 综述了国内当前开展大坝风险研究的进展状况, 并对今后的发展趋势进行了展望。