Abstract: The paper analysed pendulum displacement at arch crown according to the automatic observation data of LN2002A pendulum station on Lijiaxia dam. By statistics analysis method, through multiple stepwise regression analysis, a displacement statistics monitoring model for measuring point on 2 185 m level at arch crown section was built up. The result showed that the fitting resolution of the model is of high accuracy, the factors were clear and the model had actual application value for predicting damdisplacement.

摘要： 根据李家峡LN2002A 垂线自动化观测资料, 对拱冠垂线位移进行了分析, 用数理统计分析方法, 由多元逐步回归, 建立了拱冠坝段2 185 m 层测点变位统计监控模型。计算结果表明模型拟合精度较高, 因子意义明确, 对预测坝体变位有实际应用价值。