Abstract: Seepage failure is one of the main failure modes in earth dams. Based on indeterministic analysis of the seepage risk, this paper put forward the seepage failure risk mode with the fuzziness of parameters in the design and the expectation of the dam' s effective working life limit. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo Method based on MATLAB was used to work out risk probability. Taking into account the fuzziness risk analysis on seepage failure made the result of calculation on the risk closer to the reality. When all the fuzzy parameters are made fuzzy, available traditional methods in calculating the risk can be used directly to work out the probability of the failure.

摘要： 渗透破坏是土石坝主要的失事形式之一, 文中通过对渗流风险的不确定性进行分析, 建立了考虑设计参数模糊性和失效准则模糊性的渗透破坏模糊风险模型, 并运用蒙特卡罗方法求解其风险概率。渗透破坏风险分析中考虑风险的模糊性使失事风险的计算结果更加合理, 风险评价更加符合工程实际, 将模糊参数进行模糊化处理后, 可直接采用现有传统风险计算方法计算失事概率。