Abstract: Dam safety management is a process of risk management and risk decision in essential. Since last decade, the technology of risk assessment has made great progress in the field of dam safety management in the developed countries. In this paper, based on the theory and method of risk assessment, risk analysis aiming to primary event on Fengman Dam has been carried out and study on dam failure risk has been made. The author has put forward some suggestion to dam rehabilitation which can be as reference to other similar projects.

摘要： 大坝安全管理本质上是一个风险管理、风险决策的过程，近十几年来，风险评估技术在西方发达国家的大坝安全管理中得到了快速的发展和应用。本文根据风险评估的理论和方法，对影响丰满大坝安全的主要初始事件进行了风险分析，对大的失事风险进行了探索研究，并据此对丰满大坝的补强加固提出了初步建议，可供实际工作或类似工程参考。