Abstract: This paper has studied and compared the model construction, analysis Precision, resolution reliability, forecast effect and the inversion of dam material physical parameter etc, evaluated the practical application of the three model, and pointed out wide-ranging suitability, the forecast superiority of mixed model, the limitation of the deterministic model and the factor correlativity of the three model.?

摘要： 本文对大坝安全监测资料分析中使用的统计模型、混合模型和确定性模型在模型建造、分析精度、分解可靠性、预报效果及反演坝体材料物理参数等方面进行了比较研究，对三种模型的实际应用进行了评价，指出了统计模型的广泛适用性，混合模型用于预报的优越性、确定性模型存在的局限性，以及三种模型均存在的因子相关性。