Abstract: At present the dams built in our country are more and more numerous higher and larger. As time goes on, the dams are often subjected to action of low temperature and high water level. And age-harden year by year, therefore large dam safety monitoring have become a important research subject that is paid attention to our country even in the world. This article discoursed deterministic model and statistical model which established on the basis of displacement actual measurement data on the 13# buttress of Fu Ziling dam in the fourth period (from June of 1983to Dec. of 1984), and which is used for forecasting horizontal displacement of dam top (form Jan. of 1985 to June of 1986). And for comparing the forecast actual effect, the forecast precision and surveillance action to dam safety operation.?

摘要： 目前我国建造的大坝繁多，愈来愈高大，随着时间的推移，大坝经常受到低温的冲击及高水位作用而逐年老化，故大坝安全监控已成为我国甚至世界上注目的一个重要研完课题。 本文根据佛坝13号垛第Ⅳ阶段从83年6月至84年12月位移实测资杆建立起来的确定性模型与统计模型，用来外延预报85年l月至87年6月的坝顶水平位移。用以比较两种模型的外延实际效果、预报精度以及对大坝的安全运行起到的监控作用。