关键词: 大坝运行安全, 突发事件情景演化, 结构化描述, 动态演化模型

Abstract: Starting from the characteristics of emergencies and the requirements for emergency decisionmaking, this study treats dam operation emergencies as a continuous dynamic evolution process, propos⁃ es a scenario quintuple description method for dam operation emergencies, and constructs a Bayesian network model based on the evolution phases of target nodes. This model is applied to scenario develop⁃ ment where flood impacts dam operation safety. The approach reveals the intrinsic patterns and evolu⁃ tionary logic of emergencies, thereby enhancing the scientific rigor and operational feasibility of emer⁃ gency measures.

Key words: dam operation safety, emergency scenario evolution, structured representation, dynamic evolution model