关键词: 中长期径流预报, 集合预报, 自适应挑选技术, 智能筛选排序, 最优加权法, 预报方案, 模拟精度

Abstract: By studying the medium and long term runoff forecast model of Nanpan river basin, and making full use of the advantages of different types of runoff forecast models, an ensemble forecast model is established. Based on the forecast accuracy of each model, the combination weight of each model is assigned. The model can establish an adaptive selection technology based on the autonomous learning of machine, which can continuously and automatically optimize the combination weight coefficient of each model and improve the forecast accuracy. It provides scientific decision-making basis for the optimal reservoir operation and the formulation of power generation plan in Nanpan river basin.

Key words: medium and long term runoff forecast, ensemble forecast, adaptive selection technology, intelligent screening and sorting, optimal weighting method, forecast scheme, simulation accuracy