关键词: 水电资产, 安全风险, 基于风险的决策

Abstract:

Risk-informed decision making (RIDM) methods are increasingly used to assist in providing a means to support capital expenditure programs for hydropower schemes. Through the use of asset management tools and strategies, both regular maintenance, long-term rehabilitation of equipment and review of asset fitness for purpose can be considered across a portfolio of infrastructure. These tools provide decision-makers with desired metrics that enable more efficient use of capital through a risk informed process. These risk based tools allow an increased understanding of how concepts such as deferred maintenance or design & performance reviews may influence risk to all associated stakeholders.

Dam safety risk assessment processes primarily focus on life safety for decision-making. RIDM methods have been developed so that we can understand and compare various types of dam failure risks, many of which have an extremely low likelihood combined with very high consequences.

This paper will discuss the value of combining RIDM methodologies with risk based asset management programs. An example will be provided of how this was done for a portfolio of nine dams and nine power stations on the Waikato River in New Zealand. This hydropower chain is positioned on a single river which increases the complexity of understanding interdependent risks. The generalized process of determining annualized cost risk is described, and how the process provides insight into both the dam safety and asset management programs. A description of how potential dam safety related impacts (such as life safety, environmental, corporate and third party impacts) are integrated within the asset management program to increase the understanding of the relative risks of their portfolio of structures is given. An overview of lessons learned is provided to show the benefits of conducting this assessment.

Key words: hydropower portfolio, safety risk, risk-informed decision making