大坝风险水平与政府决策关系评价模型研究

大坝与安全 ›› 2021 ›› Issue (5): 20-.

大坝风险水平与政府决策关系评价模型研究

周克发¹，王乐²

1. 南京水利科学研究院大坝安全与管理研究所，江苏南京，210029；2. 新疆维吾尔自治区塔里木河流域工程建设处，新疆库尔勒，841000

收稿日期:2020-09-07 出版日期:2021-10-08 发布日期:2022-01-10
作者简介:周克发（1981— ），男，安徽含山人，硕士，高级工程师，从事大坝安全研究。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划课题“非常规条件下大坝极限承载能力与破坏模式”（2016YFC0401601）

Study on the model for evaluation of the relationship between dam risk level and government decision-making#br#

ZHOU Kefa and WANG Le

Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute

Received:2020-09-07 Online:2021-10-08 Published:2022-01-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了认清并评价大坝风险水平与政府决策互相关系，构建了政府决策对大坝风险水平的影响评价模型和大坝风险水平对政府决策的影响评价模型。基于我国社会经济发展水平和大坝安全管理实际状况，考虑了政府主导、公众参与、大坝风险咨询单位论证和媒体监督的现状，在这两个模型中提出了采用政府决策对大坝风险水平的影响指数和大坝风险水平对政府决策的影响指数，分别反映政府决策对大坝风险水平的影响程度和大坝风险水平对政府决策的影响程度。应用层次分析法得出了两个指数计算公式中各个指标的权重系数。根据两个指数值，制定了相应的控制标准评判大坝风险水平与政府决策相互关系程度。应用这两个模型评价了沙河集水库大坝风险水平与政府决策相互关系程度，评价结果表明模型具有较好的适用性。

关键词: 大坝风险水平, 政府决策, 以人为本, 政府主导

Abstract:

Based on the analysis of the relationship between dam risk level and government decision-making, with full consideration of China's socio-economic development level and the actual situation of dam safety management, under the guidance of the people-oriented and scientific development concept involved in the government dominance, public participation, consulting unit's demonstration of dam risk, and the media supervision, the model for evaluation of the relationship between dam risk level and government decision-making and its formulas are constructed, and the new model is applied to evaluate the relationship between dam risk level and government decision-making of Shaheji reservoir. The evaluation result shows that the new model is of good applicability.

Key words: dam risk level, government decision-making, people-oriented, government dominance

中图分类号:

TV697

周克发, 王乐. 大坝风险水平与政府决策关系评价模型研究[J]. 大坝与安全, 2021, 0(5): 20-.

ZHOU Kefa and WANG Le. Study on the model for evaluation of the relationship between dam risk level and government decision-making#br#[J]. Dam & Safety, 2021, 0(5): 20-.