水库灾变链断链减灾对策研究

大坝与安全 ›› 2019 ›› Issue (3): 7-13.

水库灾变链断链减灾对策研究

方致远^1,2，向衍^1,3，张凯^1,3

1. 南京水利科学研究院，江苏南京，210029；2. 河海大学，江苏南京，210098；3. 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏南京，210098

收稿日期:2018-10-12 修回日期:2019-01-05 出版日期:2019-06-08 发布日期:2019-06-08
作者简介:方致远（1994- ），男，硕士，水工结构工程专业。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0401603）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（51779154，51679151）

Study on chain-cutting measures for reservoir disaster

FANG Zhi- yuan, XIANG Yan and ZHANG Kai

Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute

Received:2018-10-12 Revised:2019-01-05 Online:2019-06-08 Published:2019-06-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水库大坝失事涉及的灾害要素复杂且影响巨大，现有溃坝案例以及重大工程险情案例表明：水库灾害具有系统性特征。灾害事件间关联作用是灾情恶化的重要原因，故如何全面考虑灾害系统中的复杂特征并科学建立减灾对策是水利领域防灾减灾以及安全管理所面临的重要问题。文章在对水库灾害系统认知的基础上明晰了水库灾变链的主要形式（自然灾害类灾变链、事故灾难类灾变链、社会安全类灾变链、其他类灾变链），就灾变链的脆弱性进行深入探讨，提出基于灾变链脆弱性的断链减灾对策，并从网络整体性能角度对减灾对策进行了后评估。

关键词: 水库灾害, 链式效应, 减灾

Abstract: The disaster factors involved in reservoir dam accidents are complex and influential. The existing cases of dam failure and major engineering accidents indicate that reservoir disasters have systematic characteristics. The correlation between disaster events is an important cause for deterioration. Therefore, how to comprehensively consider the complex characteristics of disaster systems and scientifically establish disaster mitigation measures is an important issue in disaster prevention and safety management of water conservancy project. Based on the systematic cognition of reservoir disasters, this paper clarifies the main forms of reservoir disaster chain, which can be divided into natural hazard chain, accident disaster chain, social disaster chain and other disaster chain. And then vulnerability of disaster chain is discussed. Afterwards, measures for chain-cutting disaster reduction, verified by network efficiency index, are put forward, offering reference for decision-makers.

Key words: reservoir disaster, chain effect, disaster reduction

方致远，向衍，张凯. 水库灾变链断链减灾对策研究[J]. 大坝与安全, 2019, 0(3): 7-13.

FANG Zhi- yuan, XIANG Yan and ZHANG Kai. Study on chain-cutting measures for reservoir disaster[J]. Dam & Safety, 2019, 0(3): 7-13.

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