关键词: 山洪灾害, 多源数据, 集合预报

Abstract: Mountain torrents are the result of many factors such as geological conditions, meteorological conditions and human activities. The relationship between rainfall and mountain torrent has always been the focus of research. It is explored that how the multi-source rainfall data can be effectively applied in the prediction and early warning of mountain torrent disasters. Rainfall prediction methods in areas without data are made up, based on the technology of satellite and radar estimation of rainfall, and combined with station observation data. The ensemble numerical prediction method is introduced, and the foresight period of rainfall forecast for mountain torrents is prolonged. A forecasting and warning system for mountain torrents is established. And a preliminary early warning platform based on multi-source rainfall data is designed with four levels, namely risk identification, risk prediction, risk simulation and risk assessment.

Key words: torrential flood disasters, multisource precipitation data, ensemble forecast