关键词: 参数率定, 新安江模型, 理想模型, 实际流域模型, 锦屏水电站, 应用检验

Abstract:

For conceptual hydrological model for river basin, its core is the model structure and parameters. In general, the model application results and the forecasting accuracy largely depends on the model parameters. Therefore, to find a proper parameter optimization method to obtain optimal parameter values is essential. Usually, sum of squared errors is taken as the objective function to get nonlinear function parameters, which give rise to problems about irrelevant local optimal solution. Therefore, Professor BAO Weimin proposes the calibrating by system response rate method for model parameters. This method is used in parameters optimization of Xin'anjiang model and the ideal model as well as the practical basin model are established to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the method. Firstly, ideal model of secondary flood is built to verify its calibration and optimization ability for sensitive parameters. The result proved the applicability of the method as the convergence to truth-value is achieved and initial values exert little influence on result. Secondly, this method is applied to the actual river basin. Select the Liewa-Jinping reach and Maidilong-Jinping reach as the subjects, calibration of sensitive parameters in sub-model is carried out. The results show that the calibrated parameters are independent from the selection of initial value and the optimal value could be found. Moreover, with a relatively less times of optimization and higher accuracy, the effectiveness of calibration by system response for prediction model parameters is proved.

Key words: parameter calibration, Xin'anjiang model, ideal model, practical basin model, Jinping hydropower station, application tests