关键词: 风险, 决策制定, 修复, 优先性

Abstract: Owners of a portfolio of dams face the difficult challenge of prioritizing a number of dam safety deficiencies of varying degrees of seriousness. Regulators and company shareholders demand justification for capital expenditures and transparency in all decision-making. The dam asset manager must be able to summarize and continuously monitor the health and risk of the dams in the portfolio, and be able to convey this information to senior company managers, Board of Directors, and regulators in a manner that is concise and easily understood.
This paper presents a methodology for prioritizing dam safety remedial works based on the physical condition of the dam, the degree of deficiency of the dam under design loading conditions for various potential failure modes, the probability of occurrence of the design loading condition, and the consequences of failure of the dam. It uses information that is already available in the Dam Safety Reviews, so no additional engineering studies are required. A standardized spreadsheet format is presented which is used to store the dam safety information and undertake the risk assessment and prioritization of dam safety remedial works. The spreadsheet also serves to provide transparency in the prioritization process, and summarizes key information about the health of the dams that the dam asset manager can use to manage the portfolio in a structured and transparent manner and is also easily understood by senior company managers, Board of Directors and regulators.

Key words: risk, decision making, remedial works, prioritization