关键词: 失事, 老化, 风险

Abstract: Analysis of more than 1 100 dam failures and safety related incidents indicates that, while the infancy of a dam is clearly the most dangerous period, with about a third of failures taking place during construction or within five years of completion. There is still a significant probability of failure later in a dam's life with approximately half of failures that occurred after the first five years of operation happening after 50 years of operation.
This paper examines the distribution of failures over time for the aggregate body of dams, as well as the distribution over time for specific types of dams and failure modes, and explores the reasons that some failures occur in the dam's earliest years while others occur after an extended period of, apparently, satisfactory operation. It is hoped that the information presented will provide dam safety professionals information to assist in managing the risks associated with our water-retaining infrastructure.

Key words: dam failure, aging, risk