关键词: 溃坝根源, 团队工作, 潜在溃坝模式分析, 风险因素, 定性风险评鉴, 风险管理

Abstract: The best way to learn lessons from worldwide dam failure cases has revealed investigating and exploring their root causes and vigilantly avoiding duplicating those same mistakes. This approach has driven modern dam safety practitioners to look into the potential failure modes of dams. US federal dam safety programs have employed the potential failure mode analysis (PFMA) methodology, a new effective dam safety performance evaluation/management means, to detect risk factors to prevent the development of dam failure mechanisms. As an exercise in teamwork, the identified and categorized potential failure modes are based on project site investigations, available project information review, individual judgement, qualitative risk evaluation/assessment, and a general consensus by the core team members through brainstorming. As a result, appropriate remedial strategies and/or risk reduction measures are recommended. Generally speaking, the PFMA process itself is not only a technical risk analysis tool in a narrow sense, but also a risk management tool in a broad sense for assuring dam safety. Therefore, without hesitation it is time to take the concrete action of developing and implementing the PFMA process with the prevailing "risk reduction to enhance safety policy"to shape the future of sustainable dam safety assurance.

Key words: root cause of dam failure, teamwork, potential failure mode analysis (PFMA), risk factor, qualitative risk assessment, risk management