Abstract: The establishment to the predicting model of monitoring variables is an important problem in the works of the dam safety monitoring and information analysis. Based on the parameters optimization method, the solution to the optimum weight of composed predicting model was studied in the paper. Combined monitoring information of the displacement in-situ of the subsidiary dam of Geheyan water control project in Qingjiang River, the justification of the approach in the paper is verified. The effective approach of an analysis to safety monitoring information of a water control project is supplied.

摘要： 监测物理量预测模型的建立是大坝安全监测分析中的重要问题。本文研究了基于参数优化的组合预测模型最优权的求解方法，并结合清江隔河岩水利枢纽副坝位移的实际监测资料验证了方法的合理性，为大坝监测资料的分析提供了一条有效途径。