Abstract: To address issues such as the fragmentation of multi-source monitoring data, insufficient co ⁃ ordination between risk assessment and early warning response, and weak support for comparison of re ⁃ sponse options following an early warning in the operation and management of earth-rock dams, this pa ⁃ per explores a framework of the platform integrating forecasting, early warning, scenario simulation, and contingency planning based on the operational requirements of monitoring, regulation, and emergency management. Centered on forecasting, early warning, scenario simulation, and contingency planning, the platform integrates rainfall and hydrological data, dam safety monitoring, patrol inspections, regulation and operation, risk and hazard assessments, and contingency plan materials to form a closed-loop opera ⁃ tional process of "status awareness-forecasting and analysis-tiered early warning-scenario simulation- contingency plan activation-response and feedback", which can effectively strengthen the safety opera ⁃ tion and management of earth-rock dams.

Key words: earth-rock dam, safe operation, platform integrating forecasting, early warning, scenario simulation, and contingency planning, risk early warning, emergency response plans

摘要： 针对土石坝运行管理中多源监测信息分散、风险研判与预警处置衔接不足、预警后方案比选支撑不强等 问题，基于监测、调度和应急管理业务要求，探讨土石坝安全运行管理“四预”平台的框架。平台以预报、预警、预 演、预案为核心，将雨水情、大坝安全监测、巡查检查、调度运行、风险隐患和预案资料贯通起来，形成“状态感知- 预报研判-分级预警-情景预演-预案调用-处置反馈”的业务闭环，可切实加强土石坝安全运行管理工作。

关键词: 土石坝, 安全运行, “四预”平台, 风险预警, 应急预案