Abstract: To quantitatively assess the risk of sedimentation at deep hole inlets of reservoir dams, a comprehensive evaluation method was used to construct a deep hole inlet sedimentation risk assessment index system, in which 10 indicators closely related to risk were selected. A combined weighting method was introduced to determine the indicator weights. Based on collected data and statistical analysis, quantitative standards for each indicator were determined. A formula for calculating deep hole inlet sedimentation risk was proposed, and the risk was categorized into four levels: low, medium, relatively high, and high. This method was applied to assess the sedimentation risk at the inlet of a project, and the result showed medium risk, which was consistent with actual situation, demonstrating the scientific, reasonable, reliable, practical, and operational nature of the method.

Key words:  , reservoir, dam, deep hole inlet, sedimentation, risk assessment

摘要： 为定量评估水库大坝深孔进口堆积风险，采用综合评价方法，选取与风险密切相关的 10 个指标构建了深孔进口堆积风险评估指标体系。引入组合赋权法确定指标权重，并基于资料搜集与数据统计分析，确定了各指标的量化标准，提出了深孔进口堆积风险计算公式，根据风险值将其划分成低、中、较高和高风险四个等级。应用该方法评估某工程进口堆积风险，评估结果为中风险，与实际相符，表明该方法科学、合理、可信，且具有实用性与可操作性。

关键词: 水库, 大坝, 深孔进水口, 堆积, 风险评估