Abstract: In view of the construction characteristics of water conservancy projects and the particularity of the funds source, to ensure the smooth progress of the project construction by the schedule plan, this paper mainly studies the construction schedule risk of reservoir renovation project under the special-purpose bond financing mode, and identifies the risk factors causing the project schedule delay by constructing the WBS-RBS risk matrix. Based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the influence weight of each risk factor is determined and the risk degree of the overall project progress is evaluated, so as to distinguish the primary and secondary influencing factors, put forward countermeasures, reduce the possibility of risk occurrence and lower the degree of impact, which provides a guarantee for the project to win the subsequent bond funds, complete on schedule and put into operation in time.

Key words: reservoir renovation, special-purpose bond financing, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,  , schedule risk management

摘要： 鉴于水利项目建设特点及其资金来源的特殊性，为保证工程建设进度按工期计划顺利推进，主要对专项债券融资模式下某水库改造项目的建设进度风险进行研究，通过构建WBS-RBS风险矩阵，对造成项目工期延误的风险因素进行识别，基于模糊层次分析法确定各风险因素的影响权重并评价项目整体进度风险程度，以此分清主次、有针对性地提出应对措施，进而减小风险发生的可能性及影响程度，为项目争取后续债券资金、按期完工、及时投产提供了保障。

关键词: 水库改造项目, 专项债券融资, 模糊层次分析法, 进度风险管理