Abstract: At present, dam safety evaluation is mainly qualitative, quantitative and intuitive evaluation method is rare. In this paper, a quantitative evaluation method is put forward, which based on the historical monitoring data to analyze and evaluate recent dam monitoring value, and get the value of comprehensive dam safety evaluation. Taking Yele dam as an example, under the premise of reliable automatic monitoring data, the seepage pressure, stress monitoring, horizontal displacement, vertical displacement of the dam and the crack monitoring of dam foundation are analyzed and evaluated respectively, and then the overall dam safety state is obtained. The analysis result of each monitoring item is consistent with the monitoring result, which proves that the evaluation method is reasonable.

Key words: Yele dam, systematic error, regression analysis, quantitative safety evaluation

摘要： 当前大坝安全评价以定性为主，定量并直观地评价大坝安全运行状态的方法不多。文章提出一种定量的评价方法，以历史监测资料为数据库，对大坝近期监测值进行分析评价，得到大坝综合安全评价值。以冶勒大坝为例，在确保自动化监测数据可靠的前提下，对大坝渗流渗压、应力监测、坝内水平位移、坝内垂直位移、基座裂缝监测5个监测项目分别进行分析评价，最终得到大坝整体安全状态评分。各监测项目分析结果与监测成果吻合，验证了评价方法合理。

关键词: 冶勒大坝, 系统误差, 回归分析, 定量安全评价