Abstract: To understand the change of precipitation and evaporation characteristics and trends in Qiaojia county, climate tendency rate is used to analyze the trend of annual value, rain season value and dry season value of precipitation and evaporation during 1981 to 2012. As well, linear regression method is adopted to analyze the relationship between precipitation and evaporation. Based on this, R-S analytical method is applied to forecast the characteristics and trend of the precipitation and evaporation in the future. The results shows that the annual value and rain season value of the precipitation are increasing while the dry season value is decreasing. The annual value, rain season value and dry season value of evaporation are reducing. Poor connection between the precipitation and evaporation is found, namely the precipitation is not the main factor effecting evaporation.

Key words: climate tendency rate, linear regression method, R-S analytical method, Qiaojia county

摘要： 为了解巧家县降水量及蒸发量的变化特征和趋势，采用气象倾向率法[1]对巧家县1981~2012年降水、蒸发的年值、雨季值、干季值的年际变化趋势和年内变化特征进行了分析；采用一元线性回归［1］分析了降水和蒸发的相关性；在此基础上，应用基于分形理论的R-S分析法，对巧家县未来降水和蒸发的变化特征和趋势进行了预测。分析结果表明：降水的年值、雨季值、干季值分别呈现显著上升、上升、下降的趋势，都表现出较强的持续性；蒸发的年值、雨季值、干季值均呈现显著下降的趋势，都表现出一定的持续性；降水和蒸发的年值相关性较差，降水不是影响蒸发的主要因素。

关键词: 气候倾向率, 一元线性回归, R-S分析法, 巧家县