Abstract:         The lessons and observations of the Corps of Engineers in implementing risk concepts for infrastructure management during the period 2005 through 2013 have been transformative to the agency’s three key organizational elements: policies, practices, and governance. Before the use of risk, traditional approaches, employed for the design of over 3 000 infrastructure systems in the Corps Safety Programs, were not always ideal for answering the more fundamental and modern questions about the“built”infrastructure: (1) what are the driving factors for how existing infrastructure systems will perform over time; (2) how should decisions be made at the portfolio or project level to most cost effectively manage risks; and (3) how can our understanding and decisions be best communicated internally and externally? In the experience of the Corps of Engineers, risk concepts effectively answer these questions and in the process, help tell a compelling story.
        The use of risk concepts in the management of infrastructure provides three key advantages compared to traditional approaches: by providing a consistent and credible way to understand anticipated performance and the risk associated with that performance; by improving the quality of decision making at both the portfolio level (priorities and urgency) and at the project level for selection of specific risk reduction measures; and by improving the basis and effectiveness of the risk dialogue that is such a crucial element of risk management. The Corps has many lessons to share with the larger community regarding the use of risk concepts including —— the power of using risk results early and fairly; how to design new governance structures to support the integration of risk concepts; the complementary nature of risk to traditional deterministic engineering practices; the importance of building new competencies in consequence assessment and in a new“super generalist”; the need to align the level of effort to be commensurate with the decision to be made; and the importance of potential failure made analysis and of interim risk reduction measures. The future of risk concepts includes the promise of transforming the infrastructure dialogue to one where the risks are balanced by a discussion of the many benefits and values to society that dams deliver.

Key words: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, risk concept, infrastructure, management

摘要：         2005~2013年期间，美国陆军工程师兵团将风险概念应用到了基础设施管理中，其间所获得的经验和观察成果可在该机构的三项关键组织要素中引起变革，即：政策、实践和管理。在使用风险概念之前，美国陆军工程师兵团安全项目（Corps Safety Programs）中采用传统方法设计了3 000多个基础设施系统，但当需要回答有关“已建”基础设施的更基本和现时的问题时，传统方法的表现并不理想：（1）已建基础设施系统的未来随时间发展其性能如何，其影响要素是哪些；（2）在各种选择组合或项目层面，该怎样进行决策以达到最高性价比地管理风险；（3）在内部和外部，美国陆军工程师兵团的理解和决策怎样才能得到最好地沟通。在美国陆军工程师兵团的经验中，风险概念有效地回答了上述问题，并且在过程中得到了人们的信服。
        与传统方法相比，在基础设施管理中使用风险概念有三个主要益处：（1）为理解基础设施的预期性能和与性能相关的风险提供了一种一致和可靠的方法；（2）对选择具体的降低风险的措施，在选择组合（优先和紧急）层面和项目层面都能提高决策制定的质量；（3）可改善风险对话的基础和效率，这是风险管理中一个非常关键的要素。关于风险概念的应用，美国陆军工程师兵团有许多经验教训可以与大家分享，包括早期和适当使用风险结果的权力；如何设计新的管理架构来支持风险概念的融合；风险与传统确定性工程实践的互补特性；在后果评估和新的“超级全能王”角色中打造新能力的重要性；将努力程度与将要进行的决策相匹配的需要；潜在溃坝模式分析和临时降低风险措施的重要性。未来的风险概念包括承诺将现有的基础设施对话转换成另一种模式，即关于大坝为所在区域的社会带来的许多益处和价值的讨论与风险相平衡。

关键词: 美国陆军工程师兵团, 风险概念, 基础设施, 管理