Abstract: For the needs of dynamic safety monitoring,the technique of multiplex fitting model developed on the basis of the experience of traditional models, possess advantages of high precision of fitting and forward forecast, and being suitable for dynamic monitoring. The technique has been applied to safety monitoring and analysis in many water conservancy projects.?

摘要： 为适应动态安全监控需要，在吸收传统安全监控模型经验基础上而开发的复拟合模型，具有拟合精度高、延伸预报精度好、适于动态监控等优点。此技术已应用于众多水利工程的安全监控和安全分析。