Abstract: By studying the characteristics of the operation of cascade hydropower stations, based on the method of water resources planning and management, the main parameters which effect the electricity generation of cascade hydropower stations are abstracted. As well, model for electricity generation forecast is established, which has better relative stability. It may reflect the utilization level of hydro energy and it's easy and simple to make the plan of electricity generation with the use of this model, worthy reference.

Key words: Dadu river, hydropower station, electricity generation, forecast

摘要： 通过研究流域梯级水电运营特点，引入水资源综合规划与管理的相关方法，提炼出梯级电站发电影响的主要参数因子，建立电站发电量预测模型,该模型具有较好的相对稳定性，可整体反映电站水能利用水平，用于电站年电量目标的制定具有计算简便、可操作性好的特点，具备一定运用价值。

关键词: 大渡河, 电站, 发电量, 预测